According to Dutch bank ING, three of Asia’s largest economies would spend around $ 12 trillion to achieve net zero carbon emissions in their transport operations.
The bank said China, Japan and South Korea accounted for about two-thirds of all carbon dioxide emissions in Asia-Pacific and about one-third of global emissions.
The commitment of Japan and South Korea
Japan and South Korea have pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, while China pledged to do so by 2060. Achieving net zero emissions requires phasing out more gas greenhouse effect than it produces.
According to Robert Carnell, director of Asia-Pacific research at ING and author of the report, the cost estimate of $ 12.4 trillion is “equivalent to more than 90% of China’s GDP in 2020”.
Power generation capacity
(Photo: Getty Images)
He said it would cover the power generation capacity required by governments to supply new fleets of battery-powered electric cars, electrified rails, hydrogen trucks, sustainable aviation-powered planes and ships. burning ammonia.
He pointed out that the figure of $ 12.4 trillion did not include investments in infrastructure to replace existing car fleets, build electric vehicle charging stations or store new fuels.
According to ING, with the three countries’ transport systems accounting for up to 30% of total energy consumption, they will need to act quickly and implement sustainable solutions to achieve their goals.
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According to the bank, the cost of achieving net zero carbon emissions in transport will be reasonable if China, Japan and South Korea now begin their energy transformation process and spread their efforts over the next 30 to 40 years .
China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, and achieving zero emissions will cost the country 11 trillion dollars – or “1.8% of GDP per year until 2060”, according to the study.
According to the China Renewable Energy Outlook 2020, automobile passenger transport in China is expected to more than quadruple to 450 million cars by 2050, up from 220 million in 2018.
China has experienced tremendous expansion in the field of electric cars, and according to ING, if the country adopts battery-powered rechargeable electric vehicles by 2060, the overall energy consumption of passenger vehicles could be significantly reduced. ‘by 2050.
According to ING, China’s shipping industry would require the most investment to achieve net zero carbon, with demand for ocean freight expected to rise to around 120% of current levels by 2060.
The price of carbon neutrality
However, achieving carbon neutrality would be difficult without replacing diesel and liquefied natural gas with green ammonia, which would result in a $ 3.7 billion increased costs and an additional 433 gigawatts of power generation capacity.
Japan and South Korea have chosen the year 2050 as their goal to achieve carbon neutrality.
According to ING, the transition to a net zero plan for the transport sector in Japan will cost 1000 billion dollars in the necessary power generation capacity. This equates to “around 20% of current Japanese GDP,” but it could drop to “0.6% of GDP per year” if extended by 2050.
Japan has made little progress in decarbonizing its economy, according to the study, with fossil fuels accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s primary energy source. However, optimistically, this indicates that “Japan has a lot to reap in the transformation process, which promises rapid progress.”
According to ING, the overall green power capacity expenditure to convert South Korea’s transportation industry to a net zero carbon future will cost around 400 billion dollars over the next 30 years, or 0.6% of current GDP.
While the costs of changing countries’ transportation networks can be “extremely dismal”, it’s crucial to realize that “all of this spending will show up as GDP,” according to Carnell.
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